Prediction markets are having a moment
There’s never a dull moment on the blockchain. Here’s what you need to know this week:
Crypto markets swing on new economic data. Also, a DOGE ETF appears imminent, and a small public firm has started purchasing Worldcoin.
Prediction markets are having a moment. But what are the odds that they’re crypto’s next blockbuster use case?
Public companies have amassed more than 1 million BTC. And more key stats from around the cryptoverse.
MARKET BYTES
Crypto markets brace for volatility amid mixed economic data
September is historically a volatile month for crypto, and, so far, this year has been no different. A month ago, bitcoin was surging to a new all-time high north of $124,000, but by Wednesday, the biggest cryptocurrency was trading around $113,500. Ethereum was also down from its own record-breaking high above $4,800 to around $4,350.
But zooming out, prices remain high by historic standards: This time last year BTC was trading at around $62,000 and ETH was under $2,300. So, where might markets be heading next? Here’s what you need to know…
What’s been weighing on prices?
Markets appear to be reacting to an overlapping series of economic reports.
On Tuesday, for instance, a downward revision to U.S. payroll data resulted in declining prices for both BTC and gold. But on Wednesday, prices jumped after the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report — which measures inflation for product manufacturers — showed better than expected results, boosting the probability of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, more key inflation figures from the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) could also cause prices to swing, depending on what they reveal.
And all eyes are on next week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve to see how it responds to all of this news.
Currently, CME traders are assessing a 100% chance that the Fed will cut rates this month, with most traders anticipating a quarter-percent drop and a growing number anticipating a larger half-percent cut.
Often, a dip in interest rates sees capital moving out of safe-harbor investments like money market funds and into “risk assets” like crypto and stocks.
As Coinbase Institutional’s David Duong put it last week, “Once those Fed rate cuts start to happen [retail investors] are going to say, ‘Well, money market funds are not gonna pay me what I want to get paid here.’”
Swing time… The main thing to expect, analysts say, is volatility. “Analysts warn overlapping events … could set off sharp swings in risk assets,” reported Decrypt.
DOGE ETF could begin trading on Thursday
A Dogecoin ETF — the Rex-Osprey DOGE ETF ($DOJE) — is set to begin trading on Thursday, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. As of Tuesday, DOGE was up around 17% for the week on the news.
“Dogecoin started as a joke, and now Wall Street finally gets it,” said one DOGE analyst, speaking to CoinDesk. “The ETF approval proves that institutional investors recognize the real value in community, culture, and accessibility.”
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently processing applications for more than 90 new crypto ETF products, including funds that would hold XRP, Solana, and much more. “These issuers are gonna launch a lot of products and try to find something that sticks,” said Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, adding that the next 12- to-18 months could see “hundreds of crypto-related ETP launches.”
Mixed signals… For the existing bitcoin and ether spot ETFs, early September has been a mixed bag. As of Monday, BTC ETFs saw around $246 million in net weekly inflows, while ETH ETFs saw their worst week ever with around $788 million in outflows.
New crypto treasury company plans to hold Worldcoin
In 2025, billions of dollars in ETH, BTC, and other tokens have been purchased by publicly traded companies inspired by Strategy — the largest corporate holder of bitcoin — in the hopes of boosting their share prices.
This week saw the emergence of a new firm that will buy and hold Worldcoin, the Sam Altman-cofounded token that aims to help humans prove their humanity in the age of AI.
Eightco Holdings, a small Nasdaq-listed company, announced that it will use “a $250 million private placement to implement a buying strategy around Worldcoin as its main treasury asset,” CNBC reports. Shares jumped more than 3,000% on the news.
“As someone that’s so passionate about the AI revolution and the future of tech, I view World as really the de facto standard for authentication and identification in the future world of AI,” said the firm’s new chairman, Dan Ives, who also serves as a prominent analyst at Wedbush Securities.
Is the treasury trend starting to show cracks? More than 100 such firms launched this year, and many have seen their share prices tumble in recent weeks, according to a new Bloomberg report.
PLAYING THE ODDS
Are prediction markets crypto’s next blockbuster use case?
Prediction markets are having a major moment, and chances are good that you’ve seen some of the recent buzz.
Polymarket, the largest prediction market in the world, just received approval to resume its operations in the U.S.; venture capitalists are pouring money into the sector; and U.S. regulators now appear focused on helping the industry thrive domestically.
Since gaining mainstream attention during last year’s presidential election, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have grown into one of the most visible crypto use-cases, with traders speculating on the outcomes of everything from sporting events to the weather.
Here’s everything you need to know.
What are prediction markets and how are they a crypto use case?
Prediction markets are peer-to-peer marketplaces that allow users to trade “shares” based on the outcome of real-world events, such as political elections, business news, and even the weather.
They’re intended to harness the “wisdom of crowds” to explore questions that traditional polls can’t always answer around the likelihood of future events.
Users can create a prediction market by specifying the potential outcomes and supplying the initial liquidity, then others can buy or sell shares in the potential outcomes, with the share prices determined by supply and demand. If an outcome is deemed to have a 70% chance of happening, for example, a share in that outcome would cost $0.70.
Several major prediction market apps, like Polymarket and Gnosis Protocol, also rely on crypto infrastructure, using smart contracts and stablecoins to offer users a decentralized way to wager on real-world events.
Polymarket — which runs on the Polygon blockchain — allows accounts to be funded with tokens including ETH, SOL, and POL, with bets placed using the stablecoin USDC. So far in 2025 it’s seen more than $8 billion in trading volume.
Why crypto VCs are investing in prediction markets
This has been the biggest year yet for venture capital activity in the prediction market industry. Polymarket raised more than $200 million in a June round led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund; Kalshi raised a $185 million in a round led by Paradigm that same month; and an upstart prediction firm called Clearing Company raised $15 million in August from a group of firms including Coinbase Ventures and Haun Ventures.
During last year’s presidential race, some believed that prediction markets were a fad buoyed by the massive level of global interest in the election. But in the months since, prediction markets have only grown, and they are increasingly cited by media outlets and market analysts as a way of gauging public sentiment.
“This sustained interest has given newfound confidence to many VCs about investing in the market,” said Michael Hua, an associate at the venture firm 1kx.
The growth of blockchain technology, including the proliferation of layer-2 networks, along with increased security in smart contracts and the widespread use of stablecoins, have also made the sector increasingly attractive, investors said.
As a result, prediction markets have become a “killer onchain use case,” according to Hoolie Tejwani, head of Coinbase Ventures.
What’s next for prediction markets?
Growing regulatory clarity could help spur innovation in the space.
In a new joint statement, two key U.S. regulators — the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — pledged to create a clear, coordinated set of rules for prediction markets, which are “undergoing rapid growth with growing demand.”
Meanwhile, Coinbase recently announced plans for its own prediction market service; Crypto.com and the sportsbook Underdog are releasing sports prediction markets in 16 states; and Polymarket will likely soon be offering access to U.S. customers after being banned since 2022.
As the industry grows, some analysts suggest that prediction markets’ flexibility could eventually help them rival equities trading. “There is no reason this sector cannot be bigger than the stock market,” said Kyle Samani, Multicoin Capital’s managing partner.
NUMBERS TO KNOW
1 million
Number of bitcoins (worth around $110 billion) now held by publicly-traded companies. Led by Strategy, which holds 638,460 BTC (about $71 billion) in its treasury, around 185 public firms currently hold bitcoin.
$347,000
Amount a solo Bitcoin miner earned (3.13 BTC) on Sunday, overcoming “one-in-100-year odds” to outcompete massive professional mining firms to solve a block on the Bitcoin network, verify a batch of Bitcoin transactions, and earn a block reward.
14%
The highest Polymarket odds for a particular NFL team to win the Super Bowl, after opening week of the 2025 football season. Whom do traders on the Polygon-based predictions market think has the strongest chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy next February? It’s the Buffalo Bills.
TOKEN TRIVIA
How many Bitcoin blocks are mined between halvings?
A
210,000
B
420,000
C
630,000
D
840,000
Encuentra la respuesta a continuación.
Respuesta de la trivia
A
210,000
