3 big crypto questions for October
There’s never a dull moment on the blockchain. Here’s what you need to know this week:
Bitcoin revisited $117K to start the month. Also, crypto ETFs saw $1 billion of inflows on Monday, and global tokenization took a major step forward.
3 key questions for crypto in October. Are we on track for another “Uptober”?
Tokenized gold just notched a new all-time high. And more key stats from around the cryptoverse.
MARKET BYTES
Crypto markets jump despite government shutdown
As of Friday, crypto markets had struggled through one of the worst weeks of 2025, after losing around $300 million in market cap as a “wave of leveraged bets unraveled, battering the sector’s biggest tokens and dragging market sentiment to its weakest point since early summer,” according to Bloomberg.
This week? Things are looking a lot better, despite uncertainty around the U.S. government shutdown that started Wednesday. BTC bounced back above $117,000 on Wednesday morning, after trading around $109,000 last week; ETH rose back above $4,300, after sinking to nearly $3,900 in its worst week since July.
What’s driving prices up? For one, October is historically a bullish month for crypto. Additionally, a wave of new crypto ETFs appears to be on the verge of launching. Here’s more on those stories and other key headlines of the week…
Renowned trader: “Most assets” will be tokenized in five years
One of the biggest crypto storylines of the last few years has been the rise of tokenized assets, which put everything from stocks to real estate on blockchains, allowing for cheap and near-instant transactions, even across borders.
Legendary trader Don Wilson predicted in Bloomberg this week that a majority of all assets will be tokenized in the next five years.
But how will the financial institutions, blockchains, and protocols involved in this transformation all work together? According to investment bank Jefferies, the crypto protocol Chainlink (LINK) could be one of the keys.
Chainlink is designed to connect blockchains to a huge range of off-chain data sources (prices, macroeconomic factors, even the weather), and increasingly it’s becoming a major bridge for tokenization.
This week, Chainlink announced a new pilot with global banking messaging system SWIFT, allowing the movement of tokenized assets via conventional rails. The protocol has also partnered with many of the world’s biggest financial institutions to test a blockchain-and-AI-powered solution for corporate actions like mergers and acquisitions.
Off the chain… According to Jefferies’ report, tokenized-asset value (excluding stablecoins) has reached $30 billion so far this year — a 253% year-to-date increase.
Crypto ETF inflows tallied more than $1 billion on Monday
As crypto prices dipped last week, more than $800 million flowed out of crypto ETFs, according to CoinShares’ Monday report. Funds holding BTC (which shed $719 million) and ETH (which lost $409 million) were responsible for the lion’s share of the outflows, which were partially offset by altcoin-fund inflows.
The biggest winners? Funds holding Solana and XRP, which saw gains of around $291 million and $93 million, respectively.
By early this week, however, crypto markets bounced back in a major way. On Monday, inflows topped $1 billion, according to SoSoValue data. ETH ETFs gained the most, with $547 million in inflows, while BTC ETFs tallied around $522 million in new capital.
Vanguard action… The low-cost asset management giant Vanguard — which manages roughly $11 trillion in assets for around 50 million customers — may finally be preparing to allow crypto ETFs on its platform, noted Bloomberg. “The astounding success of [BTC] ETFs added a lot to the pressure,” said Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas. “Had Bitcoin ETFs been a flop, I don’t think [Vanguard] would consider lifting the ban.”
HARVEST MOON
3 big questions as the crypto calendar turns to “Uptober”
Now that crypto markets have navigated the pitfalls of Red September, will this October be an ‘Uptober’ to remember?
Bitcoin managed to finish a choppy September slightly in the green, up around 6%, despite fears of a U.S. government shutdown injecting uncertainty into crypto markets.
Why were markets able to shake off downside jitters? One popular explanation: October is historically one of the best-performing months of the calendar for BTC.
With another potential interest rate cut on the horizon, a government shutdown in full swing, and more than a dozen new altcoin ETFs up for approval, can crypto markets deliver on its “Uptober” expectations?
Here’s what you need to know.
What might the government shutdown mean for interest rate cuts — and crypto?
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to continue its rate-cutting campaign, which began last month, at its upcoming October meeting. Interest-rate traders are assigning an 99% chance of another 0.25% cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
One big factor could complicate things: the federal government's shutdown, which began on Oct. 1. If the closure is prolonged, it could delay key economic reports that the central bank and investors rely on, including the upcoming jobs report, weekly jobless claims, and the Oct. 15 Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation. (Economic data releases are considered "non-essential" functions of the government.)
A lack of data could, however, actually increase the odds of the rate-cutting campaign by not providing the central bank reasons to deviate from the current rate-cutting plan, according to some observers. "If no data comes out, they won't really have any information to deviate in either direction from that baseline,” as David Seif, chief economist for developed markets at Nomura, put it.
“Uptober” is here, but is it a real phenomenon?
Crypto traders love October, because the spookiest month of the year has also been one of the most bullish for bitcoin, which has posted an average October return of 22% since 2013, leading traders to playfully dub the month “Uptober.”
And indeed, prices for a wide range of tokens spiked on Oct. 1, right on schedule. “Traders may be anticipating a bullish fourth quarter for crypto,” Derek Lim, head of research at Caladan, told Decrypt, suggesting that Uptober could be something of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
But not all market watchers are sold on the “Uptober” thesis. As a new Coinbase Institutional report put it: “We don’t think monthly seasonality is a particularly useful trading signal for bitcoin.”
The report argues that more sophisticated trend modeling suggests calendar months offer no useful information for predicting BTC's direction. Instead, Coinbase Institutional said, it’s better to look at the consistent 55-57% odds BTC has of having a "green" month in any given period.
“The coincident declines in previous Septembers and even the increases linked to bitcoin’s ‘Uptober’ lore may be statistically interesting, but not statistically significant,” concluded the report.
Can a wave of ETF approvals usher in “altseason”?
There are currently 16 crypto ETFs awaiting approval from the SEC this month (government shutdown notwithstanding), including funds for some of the market’s largest altcoins: Litecoin, XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, and Cardano.
Some market watchers believe that the highly anticipated “altseason” — which typically follows major BTC bull runs — might not come to fruition until after they’re approved.
Thanks to a new rule change from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the new ETFs could arrive even sooner than expected. The regulatory agency, which used to require separate review periods for each individual altcoin ETF listing, signed off on “generic listing standards” aimed at dramatically reducing the time it takes the agency to review and potentially approve a new crypto ETF.
With the new process now in place, the SEC is asking ETF applicants to resubmit applications. “The SEC can move absurdly fast if they really want to — as we’ve seen in the past.” said Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart. “Meaning that we could see approvals in a matter of days. But there’s no guarantee of that.”
NUMBERS TO KNOW
$3 billion
Approximate size of the tokenized gold market, a new all-time high. Alongside this year’s gold bull market, gold-backed tokens have also rallied nearly 50% in 2025, led by Paxos’ PAXG and Tether’s gold-backed token.
12
Number of years that one Bitcoin whale waited before moving some of their BTC this week. The longtime HODLer has 400 BTC (worth roughly $44 million) in a wallet that’s been dormant since November 2013, when one bitcoin was worth about $1,200. Since then BTC has jumped 16,000%.
9
Number of major European banks that announced last week they’ll combine efforts to launch a new euro-backed stablecoin aiming to “provide a real European alternative to the U.S.-dominated stablecoin market.” Dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies currently stand near $300 billion in capitalization compared to just $620 million for euro stablecoins.
TOKEN TRIVIA
Which of the following is a Bitcoin layer 2?
A
Lightning Network
B
Base
C
2Bit 2Furious
D
Shardnado
在下面查找答案。
琐事答案
A
Lightning Network
