Why crypto has been outperforming stocks
There’s never a dull moment onchain. Here’s what you need to know this week:
Crypto is outperforming amid the Iran conflict. Also: BlackRock launched a staking ETF and Strategy bought $1.6 billion in BTC.
Is bitcoin decoupling from the stock market? A deeper look at what BTC’s recent performance indicates about its role as a “safe haven” asset.
What prediction markets are saying about March Madness. Inside the forecasts for this year’s tournament bracket.
MARKET BYTES
Crypto is outperforming many asset classes as Iran conflict continues
On Monday, BTC spiked to $76,000, marking its highest level in six weeks and an increase of more than 15% over last week. Solana, XRP, and ETH all saw even bigger percentage gains, with the crypto market broadly outperforming most other asset classes amid the volatility sparked by the conflict in Iran.
Crypto-powered decentralized perpetual futures platforms have also surged in recent weeks, with contracts that trade stablecoins against oil prices sparking multiple billion-dollar trading days recently. As a Wall Street Journal headline recently put it: “The hottest new crypto trade is 24/7 oil futures.”
Markets, of course, remain volatile, and BTC dipped to around $71,000 on Wednesday following hotter-than-expected inflation data, spiking oil prices, and the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it’s holding interest rates at current levels.
On the plus side, inflows to crypto ETFs remain strong, Strategy just made its second largest BTC purchase of 2026, and futures markets are showing longer-term bullish signals for both BTC and ETH.
Here’s more news you should know…
BlackRock launches ETH ETF with staking rewards
On Thursday, the asset management giant BlackRock launched a new spot crypto ETF — iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHB) — which tracks the price of Ether and also allows investors to participate in the staking rewards earned by the fund’s holdings. It joins BlackRock’s existing spot Ether fund, ETHA, which simply tracks the price of unstaked ETH.
“With existing ether investors, we think that a majority — but not all — ether ETP holders will prefer ETHB, the version with staking,” BlackRock Head of Digital Assets Robbie Mitchnick told Yahoo Finance. “We [also] do think that there's some subset of the market that's going to prefer the fully unstaked version for just maximal liquidity and flexibility. But for the sort of longer-term buy and hold investor who wants to capture that yield, ETHB is likely to be their preferred product.”
ETHB isn’t the first Ether ETF to include staking-reward yield, but given BlackRock’s status as the world’s biggest fund manager, the launch was watched closely by analysts. On the first day, the fund saw $15.5 million in trade volume, which Bloomberg analysts described as “very, very, solid.”
Flow state… After struggling to start the year, crypto ETFs have now notched three positive weeks in a row. “Spot bitcoin ETFs reported net inflows on all five trading days last week, totaling $767.3 million,” according to The Block. Spot Ethereum ETFs logged a more modest weekly net inflow of $160.8 million.
Strategy just bought $1.6 billion in BTC
The BTC accumulation giant Strategy bought nearly $1.6 billion worth of bitcoin in the last week, according to recent filings, bringing its total holdings to 761,068 BTC worth around $54 billion as of Wednesday.
Around $400 million of the purchase was funded by selling Strategy stock, and “the remaining $1.2 billion came from at-the-market sales of its ‘Stretch’ perpetual preferred shares,” Bloomberg reported. “The dividend-paying securities — similar to bonds that never mature — promise investors a steady yield funded ultimately by Strategy’s bitcoin holdings.”
One major purchaser of the Stretch shares was former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s own BTC treasury firm, Strive, which allocated $50 million to the purchase.
Total immersion… Strategy’s Ethereum counterpart, the treasury firm Bitmine Immersion Technologies, purchased 60,999 ETH last week, bringing its total holdings to 4.6 million ETH worth around $10 billion. “Bitmine has slightly increased the pace of Ethereum buys in each of the past two weeks,” noted CEO Tom Lee, “as our base case is Ethereum is in the final stages of the 'mini-crypto winter'."
CONSCIOUS DECOUPLING
Is bitcoin decoupling from the stock market?
Global markets, from oil to equities and gold, have been rocked by major geopolitical turmoil in recent weeks. But bitcoin, and crypto more broadly, have been a bright spot, with crypto’s correlation to stock market performance appearing to be declining.
With BTC up roughly 5% in the past month and the S&P 500 down in that same span, some analysts are wondering: Could bitcoin be decoupling from the stock market?
Here’s what you need to know.
What is decoupling?
For much of its history, bitcoin has traded with a positive correlation to the U.S. stock market, with BTC’s performance perceived as being largely dependent on whether the macro environment was positive for risk assets.
But, longtime bitcoin advocates have cautioned that BTC could eventually shake its correlation to stocks and behave more like digital gold, or a safe-haven asset that is relatively insulated from equity markets. And since the conflict in Iran began, the correlation between the two markets has declined sharply.
Correlation between two variables is measured by a data point called the correlation coefficient, which runs on a scale from -1 to 1. If the correlation coefficient is higher than 0.5, the variables are seen to have a positive correlation. If the coefficient is less than -0.5, the variables are seen to have a negative correlation.
Since Feb. 24, when the correlation between BTC and stocks was near 0.7, it has declined to -.54, a significant shift within just a few weeks and one that could signal a “plot twist,” said analysts at QCP Capital, since BTC and stocks generally are correlated during bearish phases.
“Recent price action suggests the narrative of BTC as a “digital safe haven” or “geopolitical hedge” may be resurfacing, with markets stress-testing that thesis in real time,” noted QCP Capital in a recent investor note.
Why is BTC outperforming stocks right now?
Analysts are pointing to a few reasons why bitcoin is outperforming stocks over the past few weeks, with rising institutional demand for BTC and bitcoin’s perceived resilience against geopolitical turmoil being leading factors.
Last week saw the third straight week of inflows for crypto ETFs after weeks of steep declines. Of the $763 million of inflows for bitcoin ETFs last week, 78% flowed into BlackRock’s fund, IBIT. That concentration of funds, said Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, “reflects conviction buying rather than speculative rotation.”
And crypto treasury firms, led by Strategy, have been upping the rate of purchases in recent weeks, with such firms buying BTC at around 2.8 times the rate newly mined supply is hitting the market, creating an imbalance between demand and issuance.
Analysts at Bernstein believe bitcoin’s resilience reflects how institutional ownership is reshaping the market. With retail investors largely being sellers in recent months, institutional investors have been replacing much of that demand and as a result “have transformed bitcoin’s ownership structure,” said Gautam Chhugani of Bernstein.
Furthermore, fresh capital also appears to be entering the crypto ecosystem, as evidenced by the USDC supply recently reaching a record high of $81.1 billion.
“It is almost like the world is remembering that bitcoin is a borderless asset that operates outside the traditional financial system,” said Professional Capital Management founder Anthony Pompliano in a recent blog post.
What could be next for bitcoin?
While BTC’s resilience is a positive sign after months of extremely negative sentiment and bearish price action, analysts warn that macro factors could still determine where bitcoin goes from here. The rise in energy costs associated with the current Middle East conflict, for example, are taming expectations of multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, since higher oil prices could reignite inflation.
“If the conflict looks as if it’s drawing to an end, Bitcoin could very easily recover quickly and retrace back towards the $100,000 mark,” said Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE. “If the conflict is likely to drag on, Bitcoin could dip back towards the $60,000 mark.”
THE BIG DANCE
What do prediction markets say will happen during March Madness?
March Madness is upon us, which means that sports fans across the nation have spent countless hours since Sunday painstakingly filling out their brackets.
What is the collective wisdom saying about who could win the tournament? Traders have placed more than $150 million in predictions on the tournament so far. Here are predictions for some of the most popular categories.
Who will win the Men’s College Basketball tournament?
20%, Duke
What markets say: Traders have placed more than $141 million in predictions for the Men’s College Basketball Champion, with Duke, the top ranked team in the nation, having a slight edge over Michigan (18%), and Arizona (17%).
What analysts say: “A deep roster, a burgeoning head coach in Jon Scheyer and the single-best player in the country in power forward Cameron Boozer should give Duke more than enough firepower to capture the program's first national title since 2015.” – Fox Sports
How many upsets will happen in the round of 64?
97%, 3 or more upsets
What markets say: Traders have placed nearly $500,000 in predictions on how many upsets they think might happen in the tournament’s round of 64 (which is made up of 32 games), with 3, 4, and 5 all notching an 85% or higher probability. Traders have assigned a 52% chance of 7 or more upsets, and a 9% chance of 10 or more upsets.
What analysts say: The NCAA defines an upset as “when the winning team in an NCAA tournament game was seeded at least five seed lines worse than the losing team.” Based on this definition, there has been an average of 4.6 upsets in the first round in the past 40 years. Eight upsets happened in 2016 (the most) and just 1 happened in 2000 (the fewest).
Which seed will win the Men’s College Basketball tournament?
68%, No. 1 seed
What markets say: Traders have placed nearly $400,000 in predictions on which seed they think will win the tournament. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the vast majority are predicting No. 1 seeds. No. 2 seeds are the second most popular prediction, with a 17% probability, followed by an 8% probability for No. 3 seeds.
What analysts say: “Of the 40 national champions since 1985, 26 of them were No. 1 seeds. Fourteen of the past 18 title winners have come from the top line, including Florida in 2025. As crazy as March can be, the best teams of the regular season often have the most success late in the tournament.” – NCAA.com
TOKEN TRIVIA
What is dollar-cost averaging?
A
A gradual investment strategy that does not rely on “timing the market”
B
A method to automate crypto purchases on Coinbase
C
A way to invest any amount of money at regular intervals of time
D
All of the above
Find the answer below.
Trivia Answer
D
All of the above
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